WEBVTT

cue-001
00:00:00.790 --> 00:00:03.379
Replay uncertainty before trusting a

cue-002
00:00:03.379 --> 00:00:04.412
forecast.

cue-003
00:00:06.140 --> 00:00:08.741
Fifty-three percent. Three seats.

cue-004
00:00:10.380 --> 00:00:13.875
The same thirty-two seeded draws survive every

cue-005
00:00:13.875 --> 00:00:14.931
replay.

cue-006
00:00:16.220 --> 00:00:19.703
Change only the first poll, from point four eight to

cue-007
00:00:19.703 --> 00:00:21.375
point five six.

cue-008
00:00:23.820 --> 00:00:27.094
Now the win chance is seventy-eight percent,

cue-009
00:00:27.094 --> 00:00:28.603
with four seats.

cue-010
00:00:31.660 --> 00:00:35.039
All thirty-two draws stay fixed. The input

cue-011
00:00:35.039 --> 00:00:36.908
changed, not the luck.

cue-012
00:00:42.970 --> 00:00:45.617
Same seed. Fair comparison.